Calm before the storm.....?

Trying to accurately predict the movement of the financial markets is akin to predicting the weather.  No one really knows, and we have to wait to see what actually happens.

As investors, we do not want to hear that, right?  We want a ‘lifetime warranty’ to assure us that everything will be ok should things go awry.  Would you believe me if I told you that we actually need the markets to hit some bumps in the road?  I spend a lot of time talking with clients about the benefits of ‘Dollar-Cost-Averaging’ (DCA).  Simply put, if you invest over a period of time you increase the chances of buying your investments at a lower average cost versus putting your money to work all at one time. 

DCA-ing comes with positives and negatives, but spreading out your investment deposits increases your chances of buying investments ‘on sale.’  What I mean is that we ideally want to add money when the markets have pulled back versus buying at a market high point.  To be able to purchase investments ‘on sale’ we need the markets to go down.  Please note that we are not talking about timing the market, but simply trying to illustrate that the markets going down actually create an opportunity to invest. To be fair, this strategy is a little harder to implement if you are already retired. 

You may be asking yourself, how does this all relate to the current markets or my investments?  Thanks for asking.  As we have professed time and time again, investing is a long-term proposition.  However, short-term pullbacks in the market are common.  Some of these pullbacks are small and others are large.  We are in the midst of a bull market that is long in the tooth and I would not be surprised to see a significant pull back in the markets at some point this summer or fall.  The S&P500 Index was up over 6% as of March 31, 2017**, and we have seen the broader markets skyrocket since the presidential election in 2016.  Things are shaping up for the markets to cool off.  This is not a warning or call for action, it is simply a heads up that we may see a larger correction than in the recent past.  Do not let these short-term episodes affect your long-term plans. 

If market volatility keeps you up at night, it would be wise for you to review your understanding of investment risk.  You need to be comfortable with the portfolio when things are good and more importantly, when things are bad.  You cannot swing the pendulum from one extreme to the other.  As famed investor Warren Buffett has famously proclaimed, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

Assuming you can keep your disciplined, long-term approach you will greatly increase your chances for investing success.  Keeping a long-term focus will help you to weather the storm. 

Until next time…

Darin

PS:  When was the last time you reviewed the amount you are saving, whether it be for a special project or retirement?  Regular increases are a vital part of amassing the wealth you will need now and in the future.  Remember, a retirement product is not a retirement plan.

*Dollar cost averaging involves continuous investment in securities, regardless of the fluctuating price levels. Investors should consider their ability to continue purchases through periods of low price levels or changing economic conditions. Such a plan does not assure a profit and does not protect against loss in declining markets.

Source: Morningstar.com. **Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three- and five-year returns are annualized. The Dow Jones Industrials, MSCI EAFE, Barclays US Agg Bond and S&P are based on total return, which is a reflection of return to an investor by reinvesting dividends after the deduction of withholding tax. The NASDAQ is based on price return, which is the capital appreciation of the portfolio, excluding income generated by the assets in the portfolio in the form of interest and dividends. (TR) indicates total return. (PR) indicates price return. MSCI EAFE returns stated in U.S. dollars.